Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are up 3 to 3 1/2 cents at midday, after initial weakness following the USDA reports. NASS updated their 2019 US corn yield projection on Thursday to 168.2 bpa, down 1.3 from the August number, as they left acreage unch. Production was down 102 mbu to 13.799 bbu on that yield cut. Ending stocks for 19/20 were up 9 mbu to 2.19 bbu, as old crop stocks rose more than expected (85 mbu) to 2.445 bbu. World stocks were up slightly to 329.55 MMT, with old crop down 1.45 MMT to 306.27. A private export sale of 113,036 MT was reported for 19/20 delivery to Mexico this morning. The weekly Export Sales report showed a total of 498,090 MT in 19/20 bookings, with 734,420 MT in unshipped sales carried over from 18/19 during the week of September 6. Total commitments to start the new MY are 7.19 MMT, the lowest since 2004/05.

SEP 19 Corn is at $3.51 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.63, up 3 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $3.75 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.84 3/4, up 3 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are 21 to 24 3/4 cents higher in the front months on Thursday. Rumors show that Chinese importers purchased ~600,000 MT of US soybeans from the PNW this morning. This comes after rumors also showed President Trump was considering an interim deal with China to delay tariffs, though no official announcements have come out. PNW basis has firmed. Soybean meal is up $6.30/ton, with soy oil up 20 points. This morning’s USDA updated showed a 0.6 bpa reduction to soybean yield at 47.9 bpa, with production down 47 mbu to 3.633 bbu as acreage was unch. Old crop carryout was down a sharp 65 mbu to 1.005 bbu on increased demand from crush and exports. New crop stocks were down 115 mbu to 640 mbu. Thanks to reductions from the US, old crop world ending stocks were down 2.12 MMT to 114.53 MMT, with new crop 2.55 lower at 99.19 MMT. The Weekly Export Sales report showed 1.172 MMT in 19/20 US export bookings for the week of September 6. A total of 1.934 MMT in unshipped sales were carried over from 18/19. Meal sales totaled 119,118 MT, with soy oil at 10,887 MT.

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.75, up 21 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.91 1/4, up 24 3/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.04 1/2, up 24 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.17, up 23 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal is at $295.90, up $6.30,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.93, up $0.20

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are trading 3 to 7 cents higher so far at midday. USDA showed no changes to the US S&D table in this morning’s WASDE update, as new crop carryout was unch at 1.014 bbu. They did lower the average farm price for 2019/20 wheat by 20 cents to $4.80. On the world side, they raised old crop carryout by 1.75 to 277.24 MMT, with new crop up 1.11 MMT to 286.51 MMT. Thursday morning’s weekly Export Sales report showed 610,948 MT in all 19/20 wheat export bookings for the week that ended on 9/5. That was a 95.8% jump from the previous week’s train wreck and 57.64% larger than the same week last year.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.81 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.02, up 3 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.07 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby Oct down a quarter and other front months 42.5 to 70 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures are mixed, with Sep up 62.5 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 20 cents lower on September 10 at $137.17. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday morning, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $21.22. Choice boxes were down a nickel at $219.84, with Select boxes $2.22 lower @ $198.62. The latter are down more than 5% since the Labor Day holiday. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter @ 348,000. That is down 11,000 head from the same week a year ago. A few bids of $97 live in KS and $157 dressed in NE have been reported this morning. USDA showed total 2019 beef production down 90 million lbs to 26.953 billion, as 2020 production was seen up 105 million lbs to 27.67 billion. Weekly Export Sales of 18,012 MT were tallied for beef in the week of 9/6, with shipments at 14,595 MT.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $98.250, down $0.250,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $104.325, up $0.700,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $110.600, up $0.425,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.700, up $0.625

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $134.125, up $0.100

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $133.500, down $0.050

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are showing limit gains at midday, on decent Export Sales data and Chinese rumors. USDA reported 21,886 MT of pork sold for export during the week of 9/6, with 10,878 MT to China. Actual exports were at 20,910 MT, with 5,146 headed to China. There are rumors they are buying a lot more pork this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.14 at $61.85 on September 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down $1.87 on Thursday morning at $70.58. The national average base hog value was $1.02 lower at $46.28. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 1.457 head through Wednesday, 117,000 head above the same week in 2018. This morning’s WASDE showed US pork production projected for 2019 down 55 million lbs to 27.678 billion. Production for 2020 was seen steady at 28.41 billion lbs.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $63.175, up $3.000,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $64.200, up $3.000

FEB 20 Hogs are at $70.600, up $3.000

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 191 to 235 points higher at midday, boosted by positive news on the trade war. Rumors were running around this morning that President Trump was considering an interim deal with China to delay tariffs. NASS cut projected 2019 cotton yield by 16 lbs/ac to 839 lbs, with harvested acreage down 130,000 acres at 12.51 million acres. That took production down 660,000 bales to 21.86 million. A reduction to exports however, offset the loss in production and a 400,000 bale reduction to old crop carryout (4.85 million bales), as new crop ending stocks remained at 7.2 million bales. NASS also tabulated the initial Cotton Ginnings report, showing 359,250 RB of cotton ginned by September 1, down 129,850 RB from last year. Export Sales were tallied at just 74,645 RB for 19/20, with 528 RB for 20/21. The Cotlook A Index was up 30 points on September 11 at 70.90 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 51.57, below loan rate and will be updated on Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 61.72, up 235 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 61.74, up 237 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 62.07, up 201 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 62.68, up 191 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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