Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1/2 to 1 1/4 cent per bushel higher this morning. They saw a little “sell the rumor, buy the fact” action on Tuesday, but closed UNCH in the front months. Deferred contracts were steady a penny higher. USDA added 200 mbu to the 2018/19 ending stocks projection, taking it to 2.035 mbu. All three major demand categories saw reductions. On the world side, Argentina was hiked 1 MMT (now 47 MMT), and Brazil was boosted 1.5 MMT to 96 MMT. That added supply, coupled with rising US stocks, caused world carryout to be increased by 5.48 MMT to 314.01 MMT. Forecasts of wet and cold weather with heavy snow accumulations this week across the WCB were supportive to new crop.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 1/2 to 1 cent lower this morning since ending the Tuesday session fractionally mixed. Preliminary open interest rose 11,114 contracts on Tuesday, but with little direction to prices. Nearby meal futures were down 10 cents/ton, with soy oil 16 points in positive territory. USDA trimmed their US soybean carryout projection by 5 mbu in the WASDE release, it is now 895 mbu. That came from lower imports and higher seed usage. Their Brazil production estimate was raised by 0.5 MMT to 117 MMT on a higher average yield, as they left Argentine output UNCH @ 55 MMT. World ending stocks were raised slightly to 107.36 MMT, reflecting the increase to the South American production.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower this morning in the Chicago and KC contracts. The MPLS spring wheat contracts are steady to a penny higher. Wheat ended Tuesday with most contracts steady to 5 3/4 cents lower. USDA raised their US ending stocks estimate to 1.087 bbu, up 32 mbu from March. Feed and residual usage was trimmed 10 mbu, with exports down another 20 mbu to 945 mbu. USDA raised their cash average price range by a nickel to $5.15-5.25, showing a mid-point of $5.20. World stocks were up a sharp 5.08 MMT to 275.61 MMT on a combination of higher 2017/18 carryover, increases to US and Argentine stocks and some larger production numbers.

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures settled with 7.5 to 40 cent losses on Tuesday, although front month April was up a dime. Feeder cattle futures were mostly lower in the nearby contracts, with a few back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 20 cents on April 8 at $143.50. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 35 cents at $228.32 with Select boxes $2.08 lower @ $218.80. USDA estimated week to date cattle slaughter at 240,000 head through Tuesday. That would be 5,000 above last week and 2,000 head more than the same week a year ago. The show list for today’s FCE auction has 510 head listed for sale. USDA’s 2019 beef production estimate was trimmed 20 million pounds to 27.28 billion, mainly on lower third and fourth quarter production.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted limit losses in most 2019 contracts, with nearby April down 7.5 cents ahead of Friday’s expiration. Preliminary open interest rose 998 contracts, confirming limited new selling interest. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 15 cents from the previous day @ $78.68 on April 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 18 cents lower at $83.11 per cwt in the afternoon report. The national base hog carcass value was up 12 cents in the afternoon report, at an average weighted price of $75.51. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 950,000 head through Tuesday, down 2,000 from the previous week but 48,000 above last year. USDA cut projected 2019 pork production by 105 million pounds to 27.325 billion, on reductions to all but the second quarter.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 12 to 21 points higher. They were down 15 to 83 point losses in most contracts on Tuesday. The monthly WASDE report from USDA indicated 18/19 US ending stocks of cotton up 100,000 bales from March to 4.4 million bales on a cut to domestic usage. World carryout was up 350,000 bales to 76.44 million bales. Chinese imports were raised by 500,000 bales to 8 million. On Monday, there was 19,053 bales traded on The Seam, with the average price at 73.58 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up 90 points at 87.80 on April 5. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 68.22 cents/lb through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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