Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw a little “sell the rumor, buy the fact” action on Tuesday, but closed UNCH in the front months. Deferred contracts were steady a penny higher. The monthly USDA S&D report confirmed what many had anticipated, adding 200 mbu to the 18/19 ending stocks projection at 2.035 mbu. All three major demand categories saw reductions. On the world side, both Argentina was hiked 1 MMT (now 47 MMT), and Brazil was boosted 1.5 MMT to 96 MMT. That added supply, coupled with rising US stocks, caused world carryout to be upped by 5.48 MMT to 314.01 MMT. Forecasts of wet and cold weather with heavy snow accumulations this week across the WCB were supportive to new crop.

May 19 Corn closed at $3.60, unch,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.68 1/2, unch,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, unch,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.89 1/4, up 1/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures ended the Tuesday session with contracts fractionally mixed. Nearby meal futures were down 10 cents/ton, with soy oil 16 points in positive territory. USDA trimmed their US soybean carryout projection by 5 mbu in the WASDE release this morning, now at 895 mbu. That came from lower imports and higher seed usage. Their Brazil production estimate was raised by 0.5 MMT to 117 MMT on a higher average yield, as they left Argentine output UNCH @ 55 MMT. World ending stocks were raised slightly to 107.36 MMT, reflecting the increase to the South American production.

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.98 3/4, unch,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.11 3/4, unch,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.17 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.31 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $309.10, down $0.10,

May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.04, up $0.16

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed Tuesday with most contracts steady to 5 3/4 cents lower. This morning, USDA raised their US ending stocks estimate to 1.087 bbu, up 32 mbu from March. Feed and residual usage was trimmed 10 mbu, with exports down another 20 mbu to 945 mbu. USDA raised their cash average price range by a nickel to $5.15-5.25, showing a mid-point of $5.20. World stocks were up a sharp 5.08 MMT to 275.61 MMT, mainly on the increase to US and Argentine stocks and larger carryout to select major importers.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.59 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.27 1/2, down 4 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.23, down 1 cent

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures settled with 7.5 to 40 cent losses on Tuesday, as front month April was up a dime. Feeder cattle futures were mostly lower in the nearby contracts, with a few back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 20 cents on April 8 at $143.50. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 35 cents at $228.32 with Select boxes $2.08 lower @ $218.80. USDA estimated this week’s cattle slaughter at 240,000 head through Tuesday. That would be 5,000 above last week and 2,000 head more than the same week a year ago. Wednesday’s FCE auction so far has a total of 510 head listed for sale. USDA’s 2019 beef production estimate was trimmed 20 million pounds to 27.28 billion, mainly on lower third and fourth quarter production.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $125.900, up $0.100,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $120.350, down $0.225,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $117.650, down $0.075,

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.150, down $0.575

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.175, down $0.400

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $157.600, down $0.100

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted limit losses in most 2019 contracts, with nearby April down 7.5 cents ahead of Friday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 15 cents from the previous day @ $78.68 on April 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 18 cents lower at $83.11 per cwt in the afternoon report. The national base hog carcass value was up 12 cents in the afternoon report, at an average weighted price of $75.51. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 950,000 head through Tuesday, down 2,000 from the previous week but 48,000 above last year. USDA cut projected 2019 pork production by 105 million pounds to 27.325 billion, on reductions to all but the second quarter.

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $78.525, down $0.075,

May 19 Hogs closed at $86.450, down $3.000

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $95.150, down $3.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures saw 15 to 83 point losses in most contracts on Tuesday. The monthly WASDE report from USDA indicated 18/19 US ending stocks of cotton up 100,000 bales from March to 4.4 million bales on a cut to domestic usage. World carryout was up 350,000 bales to 76.44 million bales. Chinese imports were raised by 500,000 bales to 8 million. On Monday, there was 19,053 bales traded on The Seam, with the average price at 73.58 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up 90 points at 87.80 on April 5. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 68.22 cents/lb through Thursday.

May 19 Cotton closed at 78.090, down 83 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 78.470, down 53 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 77.340, down 25 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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