Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing some “sell the rumor, buy the fact” action at midday, with most contracts steady to 1 1/2 cent higher. The monthly USDA S&D report confirmed what many had anticipated, adding 200 mbu to the 18/19 ending stocks projection at 2.035 mbu. All three major demand categories saw reductions. On the world side, both Argentina was hiked 1 MMT (now 47 MMT), and Brazil was boosted 1.5 MMT to 96 MMT. That added supply, coupled with rising US stocks, caused world carryout to be upped by 5.48 MMT to 314.01 MMT. Forecasts of wet and cold weather with heavy snow accumulations this week across the WCB are also supportive. As expected, USDA last night reported national corn planting progress at 2% complete, matching the average for this date.

May 19 Corn is at $3.60 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.69 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.78 1/4, up 1 cent

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.89 3/4, up 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher in most front months on Tuesday. Nearby meal futures are up 80 cents/ton, with soy oil 23 points in positive territory. USDA trimmed their US soybean carryout projection by 5 mbu in the WASDE release this morning, now at 895 mbu. That came from lower imports and higher seed usage. Their Brazil production estimate was raised by 0.5 MMT to 117 MMT on a higher average yield, as they left Argentine output UNCH @ 55 MMT. World ending stocks were raised slightly to 107.36 MMT, reflecting the increase to the South American production.

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.01 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.14 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.20, up 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.24 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal is at $310.00, up $0.80

May 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.11, up $0.23

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are mostly steady to 4 cents lower at midday. This morning, USDA raised their US ending stocks estimate to 1.087 bbu, up 32 mbu from March. Feed and residual usage was trimmed 10 mbu, with exports down another 20 mbu to 945 mbu. World stocks were up a sharp 5.08 MMT to 275.61 MMT, mainly on the increase to US and Argentine stocks and larger carryout to select major importers. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS indicated that just 1% of the spring wheat crop was planted as of 4/7, shy of the 5% average. The winter wheat crop was 3% headed on Sunday, lagging the 4% average. Conditions rose 4% to 60% gd/ex, or 361 on the Brugler500 rating. That is well above this time last year and up 5 points from last week.

May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.61 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.29 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.22 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are down anywhere from a tick to 60 cents in most contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are 30 to 75 cents lower at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 79 cents on April 5 at $143.30. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 30 cents at $228.97 and Select boxes 91 cents lower @ $219.97. USDA estimated Monday’s cattle slaughter at 120,000 head. That would be 5,000 above last week and 2,000 head more than the same week a year ago. Wednesday’s FCE auction so far has a total of 510 head listed for sale. USDA’s 2019 beef production estimate was trimmed 20 million pounds to 27.28 billion, mainly on lower third and fourth quarter production.

Apr 19 Cattle are at $125.775, down $0.025,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $120.225, down $0.350,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $117.425, down $0.300,

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.125, down $0.600

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $149.850, down $0.725

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $157.250, down $0.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are posting limit losses in most 2019 contracts, with nearby April UNCH ahead of Friday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 15 cents from the previous day @ $78.68 on April 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 6 cents lower at $83.23 per cwt in the morning report. The national base hog carcass value was down another 38 cents in the morning report, at an average weighted price of $75.01. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 475,000 head for Monday, down 1,000 from the previous week but 24,000 above last year. USDA cut projected 2019 pork production by 105 million pounds to 27.325 billion, on reductions to all but the second quarter.

Apr 19 Hogs are at $78.600, unch,

May 19 Hogs are at $86.450, down $3.000

Jun 19 Hogs are at $95.150, down $3.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are down 66 to 104 points in most contracts on Tuesday. The monthly WASDE report from USDA indicated 18/19 US ending stocks of cotton up 100,000 bales from March to 4.4 million bales on a cut to domestic usage. World carryout was up 350,000 bales to 76.44 million bales. Chinese imports were raised by 500,000 bales to 8 million. NASS reported that US cotton was 6% planted as of Sunday in their Crop Progress report. That is 1% above the average pace but 1% behind the same week last year. The Cotlook A Index was up 90 points at 87.80 on April 5. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 68.22 cents/lb through Thursday.

May 19 Cotton is at 77.88, down 104 points,

Jul 19 Cotton is at 78.21, down 79 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 76.500, down 66 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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