Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw most contracts 7 to 8 cents lower on Wednesday. Bearish ethanol data and spillover selling from soybeans were features, with rain forecasts on the 7-day QPF for most of the Corn Belt not helping. Trade estimates are ranging 400,000-800,000 MT for old crop corn export sales, with 250,000-550,000 MT expected for new crop ahead of Thursday morning’s FAS report. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production in the week that ended 7/6 at 1.033 million barrels per day. That was down 34,000 bpd from the week prior and the lowest weekly production in 7 weeks. Stocks of ethanol rose 418,000 barrels during that week to 22.393 million barrels, the largest inventory since the last week in March. Analysts are expecting a 263 mbu jump to US production to 14.303 bbu, with acreage seen as the main mover as the USDA rarely adjusted yield in July.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.31 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.40, down 7 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.53 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.65, down 7 1/4 cents

Soybean futures ended the Wednesday session with 22 to 23 cent losses. The market was weighed upon by the continued trade dispute with China and position adjustments in front of Thursday’s WASDE release. Nearby soy meal was down just $1.40/ton, with soy oil 55 cents lower. Late on Tuesday, the Trump Administration announced they will begin the process of implementing 10% tariffs on another $200 billion in imported Chinese goods. Soybean export sales for old crop is seen at 200,000-500,000 MT and 250,000-550,000 MT for new crop in tomorrow’s Export Sales report. Soy Meal sales are expected at 80,000-400,000 MT, with soy oil at 10,000-40,000 MT. US production is seen at 4.324 bbu, nearly 44 mbu larger than June’s report, mainly on higher acreage. China sold 171,778 MT of 2013 soybeans from an auction of state reserves on Wednesday, totaling 34.73% of the amount offered.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $8.29 3/4, down 22 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.33, down 22 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.38, down 23 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.58 1/4, down 23 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $333.00, down $1.40,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.33, down $0.55

Wheat futures closed the day with most winter wheat contracts down 19 to 23 cents, with MPLS down 8 to 12 cents. Pressure came from spillover of corn and soybean selling, and a lack of fresh bullish news ahead of Thursday’s WASDE and Crop Production reports. A sharply higher US dollar also weighed on the market. Analysts are expecting 18/19 US wheat export sales to be in the range of 200,000-500,000 MT in Thursday morning’s Export Sales report. Old crop world ending stocks are estimated at 272.2 MMT, down slightly from the previous report. New crop is seen at 265.05 MMT, which would be down 1.11 MMT from June.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.69 3/4, down 19 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.63, down 20 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.19 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures settled the Wednesday session with most nearby contracts $1.50 to $1.60 lower. Feeder cattle futures were down $2.20 to $2.625. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.67 from the previous day at $145.08 on 7/10. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 12 cents to $207.44, while Select boxes were $1.25 lower at $197.14. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday at 359,000 head, up 6,000 the same week last year. No sales were reported on this morning’s FCE that saw 365 head offered. Bids of $108 were reported on Wednesday, with a few dressed sales of $175 in the North.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $103.850, down $1.600,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $106.250, down $1.575,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $110.675, down $1.600,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.400, down $2.450

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.425, down $2.625

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.950, down $2.200

Lean hog futures finished the day with most contracts 97.5 cents to $1.75 lower. Soon to expire July was up 27.5 cents, staying close to cash. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 25 cents on July 9, to $81.67. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 50 cents on Wednesday afternoon at $83.60. The rib and belly primal cuts were the only ones reported higher. The national base carcass price was down 30 cents from the previous day, reported at $75.88. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.357 million head through Wednesday, 39,000 head above last year.

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $79.775, up $0.275,

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $68.800, down $0.975

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $52.025, down $1.750

Cotton futures were down a sharp 167 to 226 points in most front months on Wednesday. Selling came from the continued Chinese trade dispute, as President Trump released list of another $200 billion Chinese goods to target for a 10% tariff. Hearings on the list are expected to be in the Aug 20-23 time frame. This comes less than a week after both countries implemented tariffs on $34 billion of each other’s goods, including US cotton. Pressure was also apparent from strength in the US dollar. The weekly Export Sales report is back on the schedule for Thursday morning. The Cotlook A index was up 250 points from the previous day on July 9 to 94.60 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 74.59 cents/lb through Thursday.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 85.240, down 226 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 84.540, down 184 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 84.350, down 167 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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